Business confidence down in first quarter of 2025

There has been a slight fall in business confidence for the first time in over a year. Business confidence stood at -5.4 at the start of Q1 2025. The sharpest declines were seen in mining and quarrying and in the transportation and storage sector. In addition, fewer businesses than last year anticipate positive operating results for 2024 (69 percent); however, investment expectations for 2025 are slightly more positive. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Dutch Chamber of Commerce (KvK), the Economic Institute for Construction and Housing (EIB), the Dutch Organisation for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MKB-Nederland) and the Dutch Employers’ Organisation (VNO-NCW) on the basis of the Netherlands Business Survey, which was carried out in January.
Business confidence declined sharply between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022, reaching a low of -22.2. It then saw a cautious recovery, becoming less negative, but has now fallen slightly once again in the first quarter of 2025. For the thirteenth consecutive month, business confidence remains below the average for the series since 2012 (-

Confidence highest in the business services sector

Business confidence is negative across all sectors and industries except for business services. What is more, almost all sectors saw a deterioration in sentiment, and this was the most pronounced in the sectors mining and quarrying, transportation and storage, and car trade and repair. Only the wholesale trade and business services saw any improvement in business confidence. Sentiment was the most negative in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector and the accommodation and food services sector.

Optimism about operating results for 2024 is down

A total of 69 percent of businesses anticipate a positive operating result for 2024. That is down slightly from one year ago, when 71 percent of entrepreneurs had the same expectation regarding 2023. In culture, sports and recreation and car trade and repair, in particular, entrepreneurs are less positive about their operating results than they were a year ago. At 11 percent, the share of businesses making a loss in 2024 remains almost unchanged from one year ago. The remaining 20 percent do not expect to have made any significant profits or did not know.

Businesses in the construction sector are the most likely to say that they made a profit past year (91 percent). The least likely to do so were in the retail sector, at just 48 percent. Businesses in the retail sector were also the most likely to say that they did not know what their operating results for 2024 would be. Meanwhile, businesses in the real estate activities sector are a lot more positive about their operating results compared to one year ago. A total of 69 percent said they had a profitable year in 2024, compared with 53 percent a year ago.

The main obstacles faced by businesses

Since mid-2021, the shortage of labour has been the main operational obstacle faced by businesses. In the first quarter of 2025, however, the share of businesses naming this as a problem was down to around 35 percent; in mid-2022, by contrast, it was 49 percent. Meanwhile, the share of businesses reporting reduced demand as the main obstacle went up for the seventh quarter in a row. The share of businesses experiencing financial constraints also increased - albeit to a lesser extent - to 10 percent.

Investment outlook for 2025 is a little more positive

Businesses anticipating an increase in investment in 2022 outnumber those expecting a decrease: on balance, sentiment is slightly more positive than negative. One year ago, entrepreneurs were broadly neutral regarding investment. Sentiment has improved the most in the transportation and storage sector, where there was a rise from around neutral to +23 percent. In most sectors, entrepreneurs are positive regarding investment, on balance, and in most cases they are more positive than they were last year. Only in the retail sector and other services sector did the mood shift from positive to negative.